Australia’s milk production continues to recover, as global supply is forecast to grow at a modest rate in the coming year, Rabobank says in its newly-released Global Dairy Quarterly.
In the Q3 report, titled Market Narratives are Shifting, the global agribusiness bank says positive – though modest – milk supply growth is expected from the world’s major dairy-exporting regions through the remainder of 2024 and in 2025.
Meanwhile, milk production in Australia in the 2023/24 season – which ended in June – was 3.1 per cent higher on the previous year at 8.4 billion litres (an increase of 249 million litres). However, the bank is expecting Australian production to grow at a lower rate in the 2024/25 season – currently forecast at 1.5 per cent.
RaboResearch senior dairy analyst Michael Harvey (pictured) says Australian milk supply growth has been widespread, with production expanding in all states and regions, with the exception of western Victoria (where dry conditions have constrained production).
New South Wales had “led the charge”, recording impressive growth of 5.3 per cent in milk production for the 2023/24 season.
“Seasonal conditions remain mixed though across the key dairying regions,” Mr Harvey said. “There have been severe rainfall deficiencies so far in 2024 for western Victoria and South Australia, which are sizeable milk production regions. However seasonal conditions elsewhere have been mostly favourable.”
The global dairy market remains “balanced, but sensitive to change”, the report says. And the next year could see significant shifts as production increases and markets adjust.